Toolio includes out-of-the-box retrend views and supporting metrics for in-season, exception-based reforecasting in line planning.
Retrending uses recent sales (typically about 8 weeks of "good week" data), removes outliers, and adjusts forecasts with exponential smoothing, re-estimating the forecast's level while keeping the shape of the sales curve and its seasonality.
How the Views Work Together
Use the two views together: the top view shows what changed, and the bottom view shows why.
Retrend Line List View (top) summarizes retrend impact. It shows total lifecycle changes from launch to end date, so you can spot exceptions such as large ± % changes.
Sales Curve / Retrend View (bottom, in the lower metrics panel) is a weekly diagnostic of ACT performance against the original plan. It's grouped by cluster, because that's how retrend is calculated.
New Metrics
Retrend Adjustment Rate is (Gross Sales Units System - Original Forecast Units) / Original Forecast Units. It shows how far the system is planning up or down against the original plan.
Gross Sales ACT vs. Original Plan is the main driver of retrend. Toolio evaluates it week by week, not in aggregate, to decide each adjustment.
Key Controls
Lock Forecast: When the forecast is locked, retrend results go to the system scenario only, and your plan (including manual adjustments) isn't overwritten. To adopt retrend on purpose, unlock, save, rerun, and relock.
Disable Retrend: Turns off retrend for specific choices, for example during a sell-down, with low inventory, or when demand is unstable. It's set at the Choice level and applies to every offering in that choice. Pricing, return profiles, and promo causals still recalculate; only the trend rebasing is skipped.
Retrend runs with every forecast refresh, but it only updates when there are enough valid ("good") weeks of data. Before you use these views, make sure the forecast has run this week.
Recommended Workflow
Sort by Gross Sales Plan, Retrend Adjustment Rate, or both.
Review the Retrend Adjustment Rate.
Drill into the bottom view to see the weekly drivers.
Act on what you find:
To accept part of the retrend, disable retrend, adjust ROS, lock the forecast, then enable retrend again.
If the cause is a planning input such as the sales curve, update that input.
To accept the retrend when the forecast is locked, unlock, save, rerun, then relock.
If retrend doesn't apply to the choice, disable it.
Best Practices
Refresh forecasts weekly so retrend stays current.
Check what's driving each change. Adopt retrend when demand has really shifted, and adjust the inputs (curve, ROS) when the inputs are the problem. Updating forecast inputs recalculates both the original forecast and retrend.