When a product is discontinued, demand rarely stops overnight — it winds down over a clearance period, and the shape of that wind-down varies by product. Toolio's Sell-Down Curves let you define that shape: a reusable, named curve that applies a week-by-week depreciation to a product's forecast after its phase-out date. Sell-Down Curves are the end-of-life mirror of Launch Curves — where a launch curve adds a lift to a product's first weeks, a sell-down curve applies a decline to its final, clearance weeks.

A Sell-Down Curve is anchored to a product's phase-out date. Week 0 of the curve is the first clearance week (the week after phase-out). For each clearance week you enter a sell-down % — how far below the original forecast that week should fall. Toolio applies it as:

adjusted forecast = base forecast × (1 − sell-down %)

So a 25% sell-down in a given week keeps 75% of that week's baseline demand. The curve owns the shape of the decline (front-loaded vs. gradual); it does not, by itself, set the total clearance volume — see How Sell-Down Curves Work with Clearance Sell-Through below.

Sell-Down Curves are applied on both Assortment Plan and Allocation.

A single choice can carry both a launch curve and a sell-down curve — they act on different parts of the lifecycle and do not conflict.

Sell-Down Curves are managed under Settings > Intelligence > Sell-Down Curves. Click Add to create one.

Below are the fields to set:

A recognizable label so you can find and reuse the curve. For example: Seasonal Apparel Wind-Down or Jewelry Phase-Out.

The number of clearance weeks you want to define a sell-down value for. If a product's clearance window runs longer than this, Toolio extends the curve automatically — see How the Curve Extends Beyond Its Last Week.

Add up to five product attributes (for example Division and Channel) to create a distinct sub-curve for each combination of attribute values. When the curve is applied, Toolio automatically selects the matching sub-curve based on the product's attributes. Partitioning works exactly as it does for other curves — see Curve Partitioning.

Open a curve to enter its per-week values. Each row is a partition combination; each column is a clearance week (week 1 is the first week after phase-out). Enter the sell-down % for each week — the percentage below the original forecast for that week.

Sell-down is expected to increase over the clearance period (the product sells down further each week). Values are used exactly as entered; Toolio does not force them to increase, so double-check any week where the value dips.

A curve defines a fixed number of weeks, but a product's clearance window may be longer. Beyond your last entered week, Toolio extends the curve using the slope of your last two values:

If a curve is longer than the clearance window, it is simply truncated to fit.

This is the most important concept to understand. A Sell-Down Curve controls the shape of the decline. The existing Clearance Sell Through % feature runs afterward and controls the magnitude — it scales the whole clearance window to its inventory-based target (leftover units × clearance sell-through %) and never lets inventory go negative.

Because Clearance Sell-Through scales the window uniformly, it preserves the curve's shape while resetting the total. The practical consequence:

In short: use the curve to express how fast an item declines, and let Clearance Sell-Through set how much sells overall.

If a curve decays the entire clearance window to 0, there is nothing for clearance to scale up, so clearance sales stay at 0 — i.e. if the curve says sell nothing, nothing sells.

Assign a curve by selecting it from the single-select Sell-Down Curve dropdown on the Choice (and, for allocation, on the Allocation Strategy). Leaving it unset means no sell-down is applied. At forecast time, Toolio matches the choice's attributes to the correct partition of the assigned curve and applies it to the clearance weeks.

Right-click a curve in the list for the following actions:

Reopens the curve's settings (name, number of periods, partition attributes).

Regenerates the curve's partition combinations from the current attribute values while preserving any values you've already entered, then re-forecasts every choice that uses the curve. Use this after new attribute values appear in your data.

Removes the curve after a confirmation prompt.

Yes. They apply to different parts of the lifecycle — launch adds lift to the early weeks, sell-down applies a decline to the clearance weeks — so they work together without conflict.

Because Clearance Sell-Through renormalizes the clearance total to its inventory-based target. The Sell-Down Curve controls the shape of the decline, not the absolute weekly amount. This is expected behavior.

Toolio extends it past the last entered week using the slope of the last two values (declining to 0, or holding flat if the values aren't increasing). See How the Curve Extends Beyond Its Last Week.

Clearance sales stay at zero for the remaining weeks — there is nothing for Clearance Sell-Through to scale up.